It would be ironic that the Russian landscape that defeated Napoleon and Hitler will now defeat Putin.
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“Ukraine’s farmers now have the fifth-largest army in Europe — or so goes a dark joke on the internet, a reference to all the captured Russian military equipment they’ve towed off the battlefield.”[1]
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It’s hard to cut through the din created by this information war to try and understand what’s happening. The news coverage has been remarkable, with on-site, real-time reports, explanations and backgrounds by military and diplomatic experts, streaming across all the media channels 24 hours a day. It is, nevertheless, overwhelming.
Author: Alois Beck (company pastor and amateur photographer)
Source: Facebook Group – World War II in original color
Was Putin’s objective to get the US out of Europe, dismantle NATO into a quarrelling heap of indecisive nations? To take Ukraine in a few days? To resurrect a Russian Empire?
But now that Putin’s army seems to be stuck in the mud, apparently suffering low morale, lack of supplies, unable to move forward, a path for a victory by Ukraine seems plausible. Yet, such an outcome seems equally worrisome; what are the implications of a defeated Russia?
Putin said he had no intent on invading Ukraine. But he did. He says his army is proceeding to plan. Some plan. He said his army would be greeted with open arms. Some intelligence. While claiming to be targeting only military targets, cities — apartment buildings, hospitals, schools — are being reduced to rubble. Some precision bombing.
Some have declared Putin a “strategic genius” [2], yet the way it looks now, he has lost on most important counts, except his presidency, and that admittedly might be too early to call:
- He has revitalized NATO
- NATO countries are increasing the military budgets
- More NATO troops and defensive weapons are being deployed in Europe
- Ukraine has not fallen
- His army has been exposed as a fraud
- His dream of a wider Russian Empire that include Moldavia, Poland and the Baltic States now seems unreachable
- Russia is ostracized, with the United Nation General Assembly voting 141 nations against the Russian invasion, and only 5 in support.
- Sanctions are pushing Russia to default, and possibly economic collapse.
But even more demeaning for Russia, it has been reduced to become a vassal state of China, under the cover of a “Friendship between two states [that] has no limits”. China’s economy is nearly five-times bigger than that of Russia. Who has the say in that relationship? It sounds like China will enjoy this limitless friendship. Putin’s had his say, now he’ll have to listen.
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