In an article in the Atlantic Magazine, The Great Republican Revolt, David Frum chronicles the death of the GOP. It’s not there yet, but it certainly seems to be the prognosis. Supporting the hypothesis is that the political elite of the Party are said to be in a state of panic at the potential of a Trump victory.
Many questions follow that one: why the ascension of Trump? Why the rejection of the mainstream Republican candidates? What is it about Trump that overcomes the divisiveness, incoherence, and vulgarity of the candidate and his policies? Why would people support a candidate they know is unelectable as president (as polls suggest)? The larger question for those who live in other jurisdictions is can it happen here?
To answer the last question, Frum notes this is not singly a US phenomenon, but is surfacing elsewhere, including: Italy’s Five Star Movement; the U.K.’s Independence Party; France’s National Front; Slovakia’s Direction-Social Democracy. In Canada one might highlight the Ford Brothers of Toronto as an example at the municipal level and the emergence of O’Leary at the federal level.
Frum observes several concerns that trouble many Americans, including: the defence of “acquired rights” — health care, pensions, and other programs that benefit older people; bankers and technocrats who endlessly demand austerity; migrants who make new claims and challenge accustomed ways; a globalized market that depress wages and benefits; the distribution of [middle class] wealth to the undeserving as well as the concentration of wealth to a few.
Yet, while GOP candidates articulated policies during the primaries addressing the concerns of Republican voters, “those Republicans did not count for much once the primaries ended, and normal politics resumed between the multicultural Democrats and a plutocratic GOP.”
The result is the loss of trust. Trust is the primary currency of the politician. Without it, no matter what the Party Elite say, talk will be rejected as lies. The recent denouncement of Trump by Romney is a case in point. Logical and dispassionate in tone and presentation, it is sullied by being recognised as the words and motives of the lying elite. The policy makers of the GOP are torn between party voters and contributors. They appear to have sided with the contributors, ignoring the voters. It’s not what’s good for Americans, it’s about what’s good for the GOP. And now they are paying the price; not even the Party’s full moral and financial backing of Bush could get him through this revolt.
We have seen this phenomenon in Canada, though fortunately less dramatically and contained to the municipal level, with the election of Rob Ford as Mayor of Toronto. The point is Canada is not immune. A 2012 Ipsos Poll, Life Savers, Medical Professionals Top the List of Most Trusted Professionals, ranked Firefighters as the most trusted professionals at 88% in Canada (of people trusted firefighters). Federal politicians came in at 10% (just 1% ahead of bloggers). Telemarketers trailed the list at 3%.
10% is uncomfortably low and in my view leaves us open for a revolt similar to what the GOP is experiencing. For me, trust is developed on two accounts: [1] the Politicians’ fulfillment of promises [2] their on-going behaviour and response to events. It is this later criterion that in my view presents the most risk to trust as events are often unplanned and out of the control of the government. Erratic, unthoughtful responses to events will certainly erode trust. But poor decision making isn’t the only behavioural trait that impacts my perceptions of trust. Politicians don’t do their profession a service when they stray off the course of sincere criticism of policy into the weeds of purely political assaults with a goal to disparage the opponent on any grounds to gain “points” from other’s failures. A failure declared through any means other than well-found criticism of policy defames the profession as a whole. It increases the cynicism of the public. It lowers the trust.
Those that live by the word, die by the word.
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