The American Carnage


The US Administration states often had they not taken action there would be 2 million deaths as a result of the Corona Virus pandemic. In making this assertion they are suggesting that the current death toll of 219,680 is far better outcome. But the pandemic is not over. The 2 million figure is an estimated total number of deaths reached only after the virus runs its course, when 70% of the population has achieved immunity. The current death toll of 218,680 is simply a point along the path. Extrapolating from this point, the US is on track towards 1.6 to 6 million deaths.

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The Mayo Clinic reported that when 70% of the population is immune, the virus will cease to spread. With a population of about 330 million people on October 18, 2020, 70% comes to about 230 million people that need to be immune. Today, the number of reported cases is just over 8.1 million people or just 3.5% of the population (I am assuming that infection results in immunity). So, that means the current death toll of 219,680 is 3.5% of the eventual death toll; the final number would be 6.2 million people.

However, the number 8.1 million COVID cases is likely an under estimate. In a report published September 25th, 2020, The Lancet estimates the infection rate is closer to 10%, or about 33 million people. Using this figure reduces the final death toll to about 1.6 million people.

Aside from preventative measures that can be put in place today, such as wearing masks, availability of a vaccine that will achieve immunity, without a corresponding death rate, could reduce this number further.


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